There’s a lot to look at in this Bitcoin price analysis. For instance, the IPO of Coinbase, Elon Musk’s tweet about a break-up, and the announcement that China had declared all crypto-related transactions illicit have all been linked to a rebound in the price of Bitcoin. However, there are many other factors as well, so it’s hard to say what exactly has caused this rally.
Coinbase stock market debut
Since making its market debut on April 14, the Coinbase stock has mostly been in the red. Its shares have declined from $410 per share to $293 at the close of April 22. That is about a 10% decline since the day of the direct listing. But it is still early for the company, and direct listings take time to gain footing. For now, it appears Coinbase is a solid investment. But we should not overestimate the company’s potential.
Elon Musk tweets about a couple breaking up over the male partner
Elon Musk and his girlfriend are reportedly splitting up. The pair met through social media, and bonded over a nerdy artificial intelligence pun. The two went on to date. They declared themselves the power couple of the 2020s. Grimes’ real name is Claire Boucher. The couple posed for photos together at the Met Ball, and Musk was dressed as a comic book villain. Grimes went as far as dressing like a vampire at a black tie wedding.
China declares all crypto-related transactions illicit
Chinese regulators are concerned about cryptocurrency transactions and their potential to aid in money laundering and illegal capital flight. They have vowed to crack down on “illegal financial activities” related to cryptocurrency. They are now launching investigations into foreign cryptocurrency exchange employees inside China. They will also focus on crypto-related services. The Chinese government wants to protect the economy from the growing threat of cyber crime. In response, the government is imposing a wide range of new restrictions on cryptocurrency exchanges, including those offering services inside China.
Bitcoin price rally attributed to speculation
The recent Bitcoin price rally may be more about speculation than the underlying currency. There is no underlying asset to support the price of bitcoin. As demand for it outpaces supply, it has become increasingly difficult to justify price increases. The recent sell-offs of major cryptocurrencies have triggered panic and further price declines, knocking consumer confidence. While there are a variety of factors contributing to the recent price rally, the price of bitcoin is primarily based on speculation.
Minsky cycles
In his theory of economic cycles, Hyman Minsky argued that economic cycles are cyclical patterns of investment, which are driven by the banking system and the relationship between firms and their workers. An abnormally long bullish cycle would spur a massive increase in investment, but a subsequent period of instability and market collapse would result. This pattern would be called a “Minsky Moment”, and it is usually associated with excessive speculation and high levels of leverage taken on by investors.
Long-term trend closing in a definite direction
The average directional movement index (ADX) measures the strength of a price trend. This index is a component of Welles Wilder’s Directional Movement System and attempts to measure the strength of price movements. ADX is calculated by taking the average of expanding price ranges. When the ADX exceeds twenty, it indicates a strong trend. When the ADX falls below twenty, no trend is evident. Traders must use this indicator in researching whether to close out open positions.