An analysis by British academics, published by the UK Government’s official scientific advisory group, says that they believe it is “almost certain” that a SARS-Cov-2 variant will emerge that “leads to current vaccine failure.” SARS-CoV-2 causes Covid-19.
This analysis was not peer-reviewed. The early research is theoretical and does not prove that there is a variant in circulation. It is “a pre-print publication that has provided the government with quick evidence during an emergency” and documents similar to it are published.
The paper was published Friday by the British government and is dated July 26th.
Scientists write that the possibility of eradicating the virus is “improbable” and that there will be new variants. It is almost certain that there will be an “a gradual or punctuated accumulation antigenic variation that ultimately leads to current vaccine failure.”
They recommended that authorities reduce virus transmission to the greatest extent possible in order to decrease the risk of an emerging vaccine-resistant strain.
They recommend that researchers focus their research on vaccines that prevent hospital admissions and disease as well as “induce high, durable levels of mucosal immune system.”
They state that the goal should be to reduce transmission and infection from vaccinated people and to decrease variant selection among vaccinated people. Many companies making the Covid-19 vaccines are already conducting research to identify new variants.
These views were presented in a paper by a group of academics about scenarios for the longer-term evolution of SARS/CoV-2. The paper was discussed and published (SAGE) by the UK’s Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies.
They state that certain variants have appeared in the last few months and “show a reduced susceptibility for vaccine-acquired immune, but none seems to escape completely.”
They warn that the variants were discovered “before vaccination was widespread” and that as vaccines become more common, the transmission advantage of a virus capable of evading vaccine-acquired immunity (VACC) will increase.
SAGE has warned of this issue before.
SAGE scientists stated that the combination of high vaccination rates and high prevalence created conditions for an immune escape variant to emerge. The SAGE scientists stated that although the likelihood of such an event is not known, it would pose a serious risk to the UK and international.